Knowledge base

256 cognitive biases

Complete encyclopedia of cognitive biases and heuristics that affect your decisions.

You see 20 of 256 biases.

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Showing: 256 biases

#1
Decision heuristics

Confirmation bias

The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms our preexisting beliefs.

#2
Decision heuristics

Anchoring effect

Over-reliance on the first piece of information encountered (the "anchor") when making decisions.

#3
Decision heuristics

Sunk cost fallacy

Continuing an action because of already incurred costs, rather than evaluating future benefits.

#4
Decision heuristics

Availability heuristic

Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind.

#5
Decision heuristics

Loss aversion

Losses are psychologically about twice as powerful as equivalent gains.

#6
Decision heuristics

Framing effect

Making different decisions depending on how the same information is presented.

#7
Memory biases

Hindsight bias

The belief, after an event, that it was predictable ("I knew it all along").

#8
Social biases

Authority bias

Attributing greater credibility to opinions of people perceived as authorities.

#9
Social biases

Social proof

Following the actions of others in uncertain situations.

#10
Perception biases

Halo effect

One positive trait influences the assessment of the entire person or product.

#11
Motivational biases

Optimism bias

The belief that we are less likely to experience negative events than others.

#12
Perception biases

Dunning-Kruger effect

People with low competence overestimate their abilities, while experts underestimate theirs.

#13
Social biases

Bandwagon effect

Adopting beliefs or behaviors because many others do so.

#14
Decision heuristics

Status quo bias

Preference for the current state of affairs, resistance to change.

#15
Memory biases

Recency bias

Giving more weight to recent events than earlier ones.

#16
Motivational biases

Overconfidence bias

Overestimating one's own knowledge, skills, or prediction accuracy.

#17
Decision heuristics

Endowment effect

Assigning greater value to things we own than to identical things we don't have.

#18
Social biases

Groupthink

The desire for harmony in a group leads to overlooking critical evaluation and alternative views.

#19
Probability biases

Gambler's fallacy

The belief that past random events affect the probability of future ones.

#20
Perception biases

Spotlight effect

Overestimating how much others pay attention to us.

#21
Decision heuristics
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Representativeness heuristic

Judging probability based on similarity to a typical case.

#22
Probability biases
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Base rate neglect

Ignoring general statistics in favor of specific information.

#23
Probability biases
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Conjunction fallacy

Assuming a detailed scenario is more likely than a general one.

#24
Probability biases
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Hot hand fallacy

The belief that a series of successes increases the chances of another success.

#25
Probability biases
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Neglect of probability

Ignoring probability when assessing risk, focusing on possibility of occurrence.

#26
Decision heuristics
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Zero-risk bias

Preferring complete elimination of a small risk over significant reduction of a larger one.

#27
Decision heuristics
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Affect heuristic

Making decisions based on current emotions rather than objective analysis.

#28
Decision heuristics
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Choice overload

Too many options lead to decision paralysis or worse choices.

#29
Decision heuristics
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Decoy effect

Adding an inferior option makes another option seem more attractive.

#30
Perception biases
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Rhyme-as-reason effect

Rhyming statements seem more truthful.

#31
Motivational biases
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IKEA effect

Assigning greater value to things we created or assembled ourselves.

#32
Memory biases
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Peak-end rule

We judge experiences mainly based on their peak moment and ending.

#33
Memory biases
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Rosy retrospection

Remembering the past as better than it actually was.

#34
Memory biases
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Telescoping effect

Recent events seem more distant, while old events seem closer.

#35
Memory biases
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Leveling and sharpening

When retelling stories, we sharpen some details and flatten others.

#36
Memory biases
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Misinformation effect

Later information distorts memories of earlier events.

#37
Memory biases
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Cryptomnesia

Confusing others' ideas with your own, unconscious plagiarism.

#38
Memory biases
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Egocentric bias

Remembering the past in ways that present us in a better light.

#39
Memory biases
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Consistency bias

The belief that our current views have always been the same.

#40
Motivational biases
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Self-serving bias

Attributing successes to ourselves and failures to external factors.

#41
Social biases
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Fundamental attribution error

Attributing others' behavior to their character, but our own to circumstances.

#42
Social biases
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Actor-observer asymmetry

Different explanations for the same behaviors in ourselves and others.

#43
Social biases
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Just-world hypothesis

The belief that people get what they deserve.

#44
Social biases
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In-group favoritism

Preferring members of your own group over outsiders.

#45
Social biases
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Out-group homogeneity

Perceiving members of other groups as more similar to each other.

#46
Motivational biases
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Moral credential effect

Past good deeds "entitle" us to later unethical behavior.

#47
Decision heuristics
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Belief perseverance

Maintaining beliefs despite evidence refuting them.

#48
Decision heuristics
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Semmelweis reflex

Automatic rejection of new evidence contradicting established norms.

#49
Decision heuristics
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Backfire effect

Contrary evidence strengthens existing beliefs instead of weakening them.

#50
Social biases
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Reactive devaluation

Rejecting proposals simply because they come from an "opponent."

#51
Perception biases
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Naïve realism

The belief that we see the world objectively, while others are biased.

#52
Perception biases
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Bias blind spot

Recognizing biases in others but not in ourselves.

#53
Social biases
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False consensus effect

Overestimating how many people agree with our views.

#54
Motivational biases
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False uniqueness effect

Underestimating how many people have similar positive traits.

#55
Motivational biases
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Illusion of control

The belief that we have influence over random events.

#56
Perception biases
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Illusion of validity

Excessive confidence in predictions based on consistent patterns.

#57
Motivational biases
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Planning fallacy

Underestimating time, costs, and risks; overestimating benefits.

#58
Decision heuristics
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Hyperbolic discounting

Preferring smaller rewards now over larger ones later.

#59
Decision heuristics
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Present bias

Placing disproportionate weight on immediate benefits.

#60
Perception biases
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Projection bias

Assuming our current preferences will persist in the future.

#61
Motivational biases
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Restraint bias

Overestimating our ability to resist temptation.

#62
Perception biases
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Impact bias

Overestimating the lasting emotional impact of future events.

#63
Decision heuristics
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Distinction bias

Overestimating differences when directly comparing options.

#64
Perception biases
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Functional fixedness

Difficulty seeing alternative uses for objects.

#65
Decision heuristics
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Denomination effect

Reluctance to spend large denominations compared to small ones.

#66
Decision heuristics
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Money illusion

Focusing on nominal value of money rather than real value.

#67
Decision heuristics
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Mental accounting

Treating money differently depending on its "category."

#68
Memory biases
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Bizarreness effect

We remember bizarre things better than ordinary ones.

#69
Memory biases
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Generation effect

We remember information we generated ourselves better.

#70
Memory biases
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Picture superiority effect

Images are remembered better than words.

#71
Memory biases
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Humor effect

Funny things are remembered better.

#72
Memory biases
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Spacing effect

Information spread over time is remembered better than cramming.

#73
Memory biases
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Serial position effect

Better remembering of first and last items on a list.

#74
Memory biases
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Suffix effect

Additional information at the end of a list weakens memory of last items.

#75
Memory biases
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Google effect

Poorer memory for information that can be easily searched online.

#76
Memory biases
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Next-in-line effect

Poor memory of what the predecessor said just before our turn.

#77
Memory biases
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Testing effect

Information is better retained when actively retrieved, not just read.

#78
Memory biases
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Tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon

The feeling that we almost remember a word but can't retrieve it.

#79
Perception biases
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Cheerleader effect

People seem more attractive in a group than individually.

#80
Perception biases
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Contrast effect

Our assessment of something changes depending on what it's compared to.

#81
Perception biases
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Focusing effect

Placing too much weight on one aspect of an event.

#82
Perception biases
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Frequency illusion (Baader-Meinhof)

After noticing something new, we start seeing it "everywhere."

#83
Probability biases
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Clustering illusion

Seeing patterns in random sequences of data.

#84
Probability biases
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Texas sharpshooter fallacy

Fitting a hypothesis to data after the fact, ignoring non-fitting data.

#85
Probability biases
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Survivorship bias

Focusing on successes, ignoring invisible failures.

#86
Decision heuristics
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Outcome bias

Judging decision quality based on outcome, not process.

#87
Decision heuristics
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Normalcy bias

Underestimating the probability and effects of a disaster.

#88
Probability biases
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Appeal to probability

Treating possibility as certainty.

#89
Probability biases
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Subadditivity effect

The sum of probabilities of detailed events > probability of the general event.

#90
Perception biases
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Murphy's law

"Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong" - selective memory of failures.

#91
Social biases
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Curse of knowledge

Difficulty imagining that someone doesn't know what we know.

#92
Social biases
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Illusion of transparency

Overestimating how well others can read our emotions.

#93
Motivational biases
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Hard-easy effect

Overconfidence in hard tasks, underconfidence in easy ones.

#94
Motivational biases
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Above-average effect

Most people consider themselves better than average (mathematically impossible).

#95
Motivational biases
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Worse-than-average effect

In very difficult tasks, people underestimate their abilities.

#96
Motivational biases
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Defensive attribution

Blaming victims to protect ourselves from anxiety.

#97
Social biases
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Trait ascription bias

Perceiving ourselves as more variable than others.

#98
Motivational biases
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Effort justification

Assigning greater value to things that required a lot of effort.

#99
Social biases
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Ben Franklin effect

People who have done us a favor like us more.

#100
Social biases
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Bystander effect

The more witnesses, the lower the chance someone will help.

#101
Social biases
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System justification

Tendency to defend the status quo and existing systems.

#102
Perception biases
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Well-traveled road effect

A familiar route seems shorter than an unfamiliar one of the same length.

#103
Perception biases
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Cross-race effect

Difficulty distinguishing faces of people from other ethnic groups.

#104
Perception biases
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Negativity bias

Negative information has greater impact than positive.

#105
Perception biases
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Positivity effect

Older people remember and notice more positive information.

#106
Perception biases
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Forer effect (Barnum effect)

Accepting general descriptions as accurately describing oneself.

#107
Social biases
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Pygmalion effect

Higher expectations lead to better performance.

#108
Social biases
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Golem effect

Lower expectations lead to worse performance.

#109
Perception biases
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Placebo effect

Expectation of an effect causes an actual change.

#110
Perception biases
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Nocebo effect

Negative expectations cause negative effects.

#111
Social biases
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Mere exposure effect

We prefer things we have frequent contact with.

#112
Social biases
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Propinquity effect

We more often befriend people physically close to us.

#113
Social biases
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Similarity-attraction effect

We like people similar to us.

#114
Social biases
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"Beautiful is good" stereotype

Attributing positive character traits to attractive people.

#115
Decision heuristics
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Ambiguity effect

Avoiding options with unknown probability.

#116
Decision heuristics
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Risk compensation

Increasing risky behavior when feeling safer.

#117
Decision heuristics
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Peltzman effect

Safety regulations lead to riskier behavior.

#118
Decision heuristics
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Pseudocertainty effect

Different decisions for the same problem depending on framing.

#119
Decision heuristics
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Omission bias

Perceiving harm from action as worse than equal harm from inaction.

#120
Decision heuristics
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Commission bias

Tendency to act even when inaction would be better.

#121
Decision heuristics
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Unit bias

Tendency to eat/use the whole "unit" regardless of its size.

#122
Social biases
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Law of triviality (bikeshedding)

Spending disproportionately much time on trivial issues.

#123
Perception biases
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Rhyme as reason effect

Rhyming statements seem more true.

#124
Memory biases
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Continued influence effect

Debunked information continues to influence our thinking.

#125
Probability biases
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Illusory correlation

Seeing relationships between unrelated events.

#126
Probability biases
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Selection bias

Drawing conclusions from non-representative data.

#127
Social biases
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Observer-expectancy effect

Researcher expectations unconsciously influence study results.

#128
Motivational biases
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Ostrich effect

Avoiding negative information.

#129
Decision heuristics
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Information bias

Seeking more information than needed for a decision.

#130
Decision heuristics
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Automation bias

Excessive trust in automated systems.

#131
Memory biases
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Digital amnesia

Forgetting information that can be found on the internet.

#132
Motivational biases
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Psychological reactance

Opposition to something when we feel our freedoms are being restricted.

#133
Social biases
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Reverse psychology

Using reactance for manipulation.

#134
Decision heuristics
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Naïve allocation

Dividing resources equally instead of optimally.

#135
Decision heuristics
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Less-is-better effect

Preferring smaller quantity of high quality over larger quantity of mixed quality.

#136
Decision heuristics
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Conjunction effect

Separate evaluation of products gives different results than joint evaluation.

#137
Social biases
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Identifiable victim effect

Greater empathy toward a specific person than a group.

#138
Perception biases
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Scope insensitivity

Lack of proportional response to differences in scale.

#139
Social biases
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Compassion fade

Decline in empathy as the number of victims increases.

#140
Social biases
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Identifiable perpetrator effect

Greater anger at a specific perpetrator than at an abstract system.

#141
Decision heuristics
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Denomination effect

Greater tendency to spend small change than bills.

#142
Motivational biases
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Drop-in-the-bucket effect

Giving up on action because it seems insignificant given the scale of the problem.

#143
Decision heuristics
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Zero-sum bias

Treating situations as zero-sum games when they are not.

#144
Perception biases
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Proportionality bias

Expecting proportionality between cause and effect.

#145
Decision heuristics
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Congruence bias

Testing only direct hypotheses, ignoring alternatives.

#146
Decision heuristics
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Belief bias

Evaluating an argument based on the believability of the conclusion.

#147
Perception biases
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Expectation bias

Perceiving things according to expectations.

#148
Perception biases
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Attentional bias

Selectively paying attention to certain stimuli.

#149
Perception biases
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Selective perception

Perceiving reality through the lens of one's own beliefs.

#150
Motivational biases
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Wishful thinking

Believing something because we want it to be true.

#151
Perception biases
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Empathy gap

Underestimating the influence of emotional states on decisions.

#152
Social biases
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Moral luck

Judging morality based on outcome, not intention.

#153
Perception biases
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Rule of three

Three examples seem more convincing than one or two.

#154
Social biases
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Spotlight effect

Overestimating how much others notice us.

#155
Social biases
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Illusion of asymmetric insight

Believing we understand others better than they understand us.

#156
Social biases
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Naive cynicism

Assuming others are more self-interested than they actually are.

#157
Decision heuristics
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Disposition effect

The tendency to sell assets that have gained value too quickly while holding onto assets that have lost value for too long.

#158
Social biases
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Horns effect

The opposite of the halo effect — one negative trait makes us perceive a person or product as worse in every way.

#159
Memory biases
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Zeigarnik effect

We remember uncompleted tasks better than completed ones, which causes intrusive thoughts about them.

#160
Decision heuristics
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Inertia bias

The tendency to maintain the current state of affairs due to the effort required for change, even when change would be beneficial.

#161
Perception biases
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Pro-innovation bias

Overvaluing the usefulness of a new technology or innovation while ignoring its limitations.

#162
Memory biases
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Primacy and recency effects

Better recall of items from the beginning (primacy effect) and end (recency effect) of a list or presentation.

#163
Perception biases
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Context effect

The surrounding environment and situational context influence how we perceive and evaluate information.

#164
Decision heuristics
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Premature closure

Accepting the first explanation or solution without considering alternatives, especially under time pressure.

#165
Social biases
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Emotional contagion

Unconsciously absorbing other people's emotions, which influences our decisions and assessments of situations.

#166
Perception biases
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Facial feedback effect

Our facial expressions influence the emotions we feel — smiling can improve mood, while frowning can worsen it.

#167
Decision heuristics
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Scarcity bias

Assigning greater value to things that are rare or have limited availability.

#168
Decision heuristics
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Time pressure bias

Making worse decisions under the influence of artificial or real time constraints.

#169
Motivational biases
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Narrative commitment

Once we publicly tell our decision story, it becomes harder to change it, even when new facts emerge.

#170
Social biases
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Conflict avoidance bias

Choosing options that minimize confrontation, even at the cost of a better solution.

#171
Perception biases
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End-of-history illusion

The belief that we have changed significantly in the past but are now essentially 'finished' and won't change much in the future.

#172
Motivational biases
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Moral licensing

After doing something good, we allow ourselves worse behavior because we feel we've 'earned it'.

#173
Memory biases
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Narrative fallacy

Creating coherent stories from random events, assigning them false cause-and-effect relationships.

#174
Social biases
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Not invented here syndrome

Rejecting ideas, solutions, or products from outside in favor of one's own, often inferior ones.

#175
Perception biases
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Pessimism bias

Systematically overestimating the probability of negative outcomes and underestimating positive ones.

#176
Perception biases
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Salience bias

Focusing attention on the most conspicuous features while ignoring less visible but more important aspects.

#177
Social biases
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Social desirability bias

The tendency to present oneself favorably, answering according to social expectations rather than honestly.

#178
Social biases
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Third-person effect

The belief that media and advertising influence others, but not ourselves.

#179
Memory biases
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Von Restorff effect

An item that stands out from a group of similar items is remembered better than the rest (isolation effect).

#180
Social biases
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Stereotyping bias

Attributing characteristics of an entire group to a specific individual without considering their individuality.

#181
Perception biases
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Weber-Fechner law bias

We perceive change proportionally, not absolutely — the same amount of savings feels better on a cheap product than an expensive one.

#182
Decision heuristics
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Automation bias

Excessive trust in results generated by automated systems or AI, even when they are incorrect.

#183
Social biases
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AI authority bias

Treating AI responses as authoritative and reliable, despite models being capable of hallucination and error.

#184
Perception biases
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Algorithmic aversion

Rejecting an algorithm's recommendations after seeing one error, despite it being statistically better than humans.

#185
Decision heuristics
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AI anchoring effect

The first AI suggestion becomes an anchor around which we build further thinking, limiting creativity.

#186
Perception biases
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Output length bias

Longer and more detailed AI responses are perceived as more credible, even when they are incorrect.

#187
Social biases
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AI personification bias

Attributing human traits to AI — empathy, intention, understanding — which leads to excessive trust.

#188
Decision heuristics
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Prompt framing effect

How you phrase a question to AI drastically changes the response, but users treat each answer as objective.

#189
Social biases
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AI sycophancy bias

AI models tend to agree with users and tell them what they want to hear, rather than the truth.

#190
Decision heuristics
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Reductionism bias

Oversimplifying complex problems to a single factor, ignoring the interdependencies of many variables.

#191
Perception biases
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Illusion of explanatory depth

We believe we understand complex mechanisms much better than we actually do, until we have to explain them.

#192
Memory biases
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Duration neglect

We judge experiences based on their peaks and endings, ignoring total duration.

#193
Motivational biases
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Extrinsic incentive bias

We believe others are mainly motivated by money, while we ourselves are driven by values and passion.

#194
Decision heuristics
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Illusion of control (extended)

The belief that we can influence random events, especially when personally involved.

#195
Motivational biases
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Irrational escalation

Continuing to invest in a failing project because 'we've put in too much to back out now'.

#196
Memory biases
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Telescoping effect

Recent events seem further in time, while distant events seem closer than they actually are.

#197
Memory biases
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Leveling and sharpening

When passing on information, certain details are omitted (leveling) while others are exaggerated (sharpening).

#198
Decision heuristics
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Somatic marker hypothesis

The body sends emotional signals (tension, gut feelings) that unconsciously influence our decisions.

#199
Social biases
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Family pressure bias

Making decisions that align with family expectations rather than one's own needs and values.

#200
Social biases
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Perspective gap

The inability to understand the perspective of someone in a different emotional state or life situation.

#201
Decision heuristics
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Urgency effect

Choosing urgent tasks over important ones, even when urgent tasks deliver less value.

#202
Decision heuristics
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Effort heuristic

Assigning greater value to things that required more effort — regardless of actual quality.

#203
Perception biases
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Curse of expertise

Experts can't imagine how people without their knowledge think, making their communication incomprehensible.

#204
Decision heuristics
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Ambiguity aversion

We prefer known risks over unknown ones — we prefer a certain 50% chance over an unclear 'maybe more'.

#205
Memory biases
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Hindsight bias

The belief that 'I knew it all along' once we know the outcome — falsifying memory of our own predictions.

#206
Motivational biases
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Self-serving bias

Attributing successes to ourselves (internal traits) and failures to external circumstances.

#207
Decision heuristics
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Simulation heuristic

We judge the probability of events based on how easily we can mentally simulate them. The easier a scenario is to imagine, the more probable it seems.

#208
Decision heuristics
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Recognition heuristic

If we recognize one of two options, we automatically assign it higher value. Recognition = quality in our minds.

#209
Probability biases
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Regression to the mean

After an extreme result (very good or bad), the next one tends to be closer to the average — but we look for causes of this 'decline' or 'improvement' where there are none.

#210
Perception biases
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Scope neglect

We don't feel a proportional difference between small and large numbers. 10 victims and 10,000 victims trigger similar emotional responses.

#211
Decision heuristics
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Attribute substitution

When facing a hard question, we unconsciously substitute it with an easier one. Instead of 'Is this a good investment?' we answer 'Do I like it?'.

#212
Social biases
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Reciprocity bias

We feel obligated to return a favor, even if it was small or unwanted. A powerful manipulation tool.

#213
Motivational biases
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Commitment and consistency bias

After making even a small commitment, we feel internal pressure to be consistent — even when it's irrational. The 'foot in the door' technique.

#214
Social biases
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Liking bias

We more easily comply with people we like — those who are physically attractive, similar to us, or who compliment us.

#215
Social biases
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Unity principle

People from our identity group (family, nation, school) have disproportionately large influence on us. 'Our people' sound more convincing.

#216
Decision heuristics
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Default effect

People rarely change the default option — whoever sets it effectively makes the decision for you.

#217
Decision heuristics
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Zero price effect

'Free' triggers an irrationally strong preference. The difference between $0 and $1 is psychologically huge — bigger than between $1 and $2.

#218
Perception biases
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Filter bubble

Social media algorithms show you content confirming your views, creating the illusion that 'everyone thinks this way'. Amplifies confirmation bias.

#219
Perception biases
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Doomscrolling effect

Compulsive scrolling through negative news, even though it worsens mood and distorts our worldview.

#220
Perception biases
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Attention economy bias

In the battle for your attention, shocking and emotional content wins, not the most important. This distorts your view of reality.

#221
Social biases
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Comparison trap

You compare your real life to the idealized versions of others' lives on social media.

#222
Perception biases
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Phantom vibration syndrome

You feel your phone vibrating when it's not there. Your brain has learned to expect notifications and 'produces' them.

#223
Social biases
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Abilene paradox

A group makes a decision nobody actually agrees with — because everyone assumes the others want it.

#224
Social biases
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Risky shift (group polarization)

Groups make more risky or extreme decisions than individuals — group discussion radicalizes positions.

#225
Social biases
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Information cascade

People mimic predecessors' decisions, ignoring their own information. The more people follow a trend, the harder it is to resist.

#226
Social biases
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Shared information bias

Groups mainly discuss information that everyone already knows, ignoring unique knowledge held by individual members.

#227
Decision heuristics
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Winner's curse

The winner of an auction or tender typically overpays — because winning means your valuation was the highest (and probably inflated).

#228
Decision heuristics
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Fixed pie bias

The belief that negotiations are a zero-sum game — what I gain, you lose. Ignores win-win possibilities.

#229
Decision heuristics
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BATNA neglect

Ignoring your alternatives in negotiations makes you accept worse terms than you need to.

#230
Motivational biases
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Impostor syndrome

The belief that your successes are due to luck, chance, or fraud — and that you'll 'soon be exposed'.

#231
Perception biases
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Introspection illusion

We believe we know the real reasons for our decisions — but research shows we often fabricate explanations after the fact.

#232
Perception biases
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Metacognitive myopia

The inability to evaluate the quality of our own thinking. We don't know what we don't know — and can't verify it.

#233
Motivational biases
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Anticipatory regret

You avoid making decisions out of fear of future regret. The paradox: not deciding is also a decision — often a worse one.

#234
Perception biases
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Emotional reasoning

Treating your own feelings as evidence of facts. 'I feel it's true, so it must be true.'

#235
Decision heuristics
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Affect labeling effect

Simply naming the emotion you're feeling reduces its intensity. Awareness of a bias is the first step to a better decision.

#236
Memory biases
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Declinism

The belief that things were better in the past and are now getting worse. Combines with nostalgia and selective memory.

#237
Decision heuristics
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Diagnosis momentum

An initial diagnosis or label gains 'momentum' — the more people repeat it, the harder it becomes to question.

#238
Perception biases
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Feature positive effect

We notice the presence of something more easily than its absence. Missing information, unasked questions — they're invisible.

#239
Decision heuristics
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Arbitrary coherence

The first price you see shapes all subsequent price expectations — even if it was random.

#240
Motivational biases
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Catastrophizing

Automatically predicting the worst possible outcome, even when evidence barely supports it. 'If I lose this job, I'll never find another and end up homeless.' This distortion paralyzes action and amplifies anxiety.

#241
Perception biases
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Dichotomous thinking (black-and-white)

Seeing the world in 'all or nothing' terms — success or failure, perfect or hopeless. No room for shades of gray. Aaron Beck described this as a fundamental cognitive distortion in depression.

#242
Social biases
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Mind reading bias

Assuming you know what other people think — without asking them. 'They definitely think I'm stupid.' One of the most common errors in interpersonal relationships, described by Aaron Beck.

#243
Motivational biases
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Fortune telling bias

Predicting a negative outcome for a future event and treating that prediction as fact. 'No point applying — they won't hire me anyway.' A self-fulfilling prophecy, because you give up before trying.

#244
Perception biases
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Magnification and minimization

Exaggerating the significance of negative events while downplaying positive ones. Your mistakes are enormous, your successes — 'no big deal.' Also called the 'binocular trick' in cognitive therapy.

#245
Motivational biases
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Disqualifying the positive

Rejecting positive experiences as 'irrelevant' or 'accidental.' 'I got promoted? Probably because nobody else wanted the job.' Maintains a negative self-image despite evidence of success.

#246
Perception biases
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Overgeneralization

Drawing sweeping conclusions from a single event. 'I failed this exam — I'm terrible at everything.' Aaron Beck identified this as a key cognitive distortion. One failure becomes proof of global inadequacy.

#247
Social biases
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Personalization bias

Taking full responsibility for events over which you had minimal influence. 'The team lost — it must be my fault.' The opposite of self-serving bias — here you blame yourself for everything bad.

#248
Motivational biases
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Should statements (tyranny of shoulds)

Imposing rigid rules on yourself and others: 'I must,' 'I should,' 'one ought to.' Karen Horney called this the 'tyranny of the shoulds.' Generates guilt when you fail your own unrealistic standards, and frustration toward others.

#249
Perception biases
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Mental filtering

Focusing exclusively on the negative aspects of a situation while ignoring everything positive. Like a filter that only lets through bad news. Aaron Beck described this as a mechanism that maintains depression.

#250
Motivational biases
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Post-purchase rationalization

After making a purchase, you convince yourself it was a good decision — even if objectively it wasn't. The mind reduces cognitive dissonance by seeking arguments 'for' and ignoring those 'against.' The more expensive the purchase, the stronger the rationalization.

#251
Decision heuristics
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Nirvana fallacy

Rejecting practical solutions because they aren't perfect. Comparing real options to an unattainable ideal leads to inaction. 'No point running for 15 minutes — it's an hour or nothing.' Perfect is the enemy of good.

#252
Probability biases
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Prosecutor's fallacy

Incorrectly reversing conditional probability. 'The probability of this evidence given innocence is 1 in a million, so the defendant is 99.9999% guilty.' But it ignores the question: how many people in the population match this profile?

#253
Perception biases
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Professional deformation

Viewing the world exclusively through the lens of your profession. A lawyer sees legal risks everywhere, a marketer — campaigns, a doctor — symptoms. 'If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail' — Abraham Maslow.

#254
Motivational biases
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G.I. Joe fallacy

The belief that knowing about a problem is enough to solve it. 'I know it's a cognitive bias — so it doesn't affect me.' But awareness of a bias doesn't automatically protect you. Active strategies are needed, not just knowledge.

#255
Perception biases
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Pareidolia

Seeing meaningful patterns — especially faces — in random stimuli. The face on Mars, the Virgin Mary on toast, a rabbit in the clouds. Evolutionarily useful (better to see a face that isn't there than miss a predator), but leads to false conclusions.

#256
Probability biases
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Apophenia

Perceiving meaningful patterns and connections in random, unrelated data. Broader than pareidolia — encompasses seeing conspiracies, 'signs of fate,' correlations where none exist. Klaus Conrad coined the term in 1958.

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